Interests first: China’s playbook for post-conflict reconstruction and implications for Ukraine

China has developed a track record and a growing global role in post-conflict reconstruction and expressed willingness to contribute to rebuilding Ukraine when the time comes, find Helena Legarda and Claus Soong in their recent policy brief "China’s playbook for post-conflict reconstruction and implications for Ukraine".

The authors look into China's growing footprint in global post-conflict reconstruction, the specific playbook Beijing uses to advance its own interests and how increasing Chinese involvement can impact Europe.

Key findings:

• China has developed a track record and a growing global role in post-conflict reconstruction and expressed willingness to contribute to rebuilding Ukraine when the time comes.
• Chinese actors bring an attractive mix of capabilities, including multiple companies experienced in delivering big infrastructure projects, plus attractive loan terms from state-backed banks and fewer concerns about recipients’ debt burden than many lenders.
• China’s approach differs from Western ones, stressing economic growth before political reforms or governance issues. Its “development first” approach finds favor with host countries.
• Beijing’s key considerations tend to be the ability to obtain access to oil and other minerals that contribute to China’s economic security, and the security of assets and citizens. Both goals are pursued through intense cultivation of local authorities. Geopolitical and strategic considerations, either for its own security (as in Afghanistan) or its competition with the United States, also shape the type and depth of China’s involvement.
• Beijing favors a bilateral approach that readily turns transactional and, though willing to lend rhetorical support to UN-led efforts, China’s donations are minor, and it has limited in-country engagement with other international actors.
• China-US strategic competition is likely to make collaboration harder. Europe should explore ways to cooperate with China that benefit reconstruction processes, but European actors must be realistic. China’s rejection of values-based approaches will clash with Europe’s and create challenges for European interests.

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