Chinese economy


published: 31.05.2023

China’s growth: what is to come?

China’s astounding growth has slowed down over the last decade. Despite enormous progress and investment in research and development, China’s medium-term GDP growth is expected to fall to 2.4% by 2035. The Chinese economy will not grow much larger than the US economy in the foreseeable future, which has important geopolitical implications.

In this episode of the Sound of Economics, Giuseppe Porcaro is joined by Alicia García-Herrero and Max Zenglein to talk about the interconnectedness of China’s long-term growth prospect and its demographics. They discuss how economic deceleration impacts innovation, productivity and the wider society, as well as potential economic and foreign policy responses from the country’s leadership. The importance and possible effects of China’s future economic trajectory on the European Union are explored too.

This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics.
ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe.
Click to read all past editions of ZhōngHuá Mundus


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About the speakers

Giuseppe Porcaro

Head of Outreach, Governance and Human Resources, Bruegel

Alicia Garcia Herrero

Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, Senior Fellow at Bruegel, Non-resident Senior Follow at the East Asian Institute, Adjunct Professor at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Economist specialized in monetary and financial issues in emerging markets, banking crises and resolution strategies, financial development

Max J. Zenglein

Chief Economist at Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS)

China’s macroeconomic development; international trade and investment; economic reforms