MERICS Top China Risks 2025
For Europe, 2025 will be a year of adjustments. Donald Trump’s return to the White House will alter US foreign policy. He has pledged to compete on tougher terms with China through tighter restrictions on trade and technology that will hit Europe too.
Beijing is most likely to respond by taking a more hardline approach to any attempts at de-risking. As a result, Europe could find itself squeezed by simultaneous trade disputes with its two largest economic partners, while dealing with Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
To help European actors anticipate what 2025 might bring, MERICS has developed a foresight effort to identify key China risks. These are:
- The United States’ new China (and Europe) policies
- China’s overcapacity problem
- Tech entanglements and national security
- China-Russia cooperation
- China’s business environment
MERICS Top China Risks 2025 consists of the most probable and highest impact risks we identified, the ones that have urgent implications for European policymakers and businesses.
