EU-China relations


published: 19.12.2023

MERICS Top China Risks 2024

2024 will be a geopolitically complicated year, with elections in Taiwan, the United States, and to the European parliament. Two other key global players, India and Russia, are also due to hold elections. We enter 2024 in an environment of worsening geopolitical and technological competition, and with wars raging in Ukraine and Gaza. Europe-China relations showed few signs of improvement after the December 7-8 EU-China Summit in Beijing. China’s own economic prospects are rocky and Beijing will need to address domestic social fault lines.

To help European actors anticipate what 2024 may bring, MERICS has developed a foresight effort to identify key China risks. We sought to pinpoint risks with the biggest impact on European interests and security.

MERICS Top China Risks 2024 consists of the most probable and highest impact risks we identified over several workshop sessions with MERICS analysts and European officials, business representatives and external experts. These risks have urgent implications for European policymakers.

European actors should brace for greater risk and uncertainty in their relations with China in 2024. Efforts to stabilize relations and find new avenues for cooperation with Beijing will continue, but the overall outlook is a challenging one.