MERICS’ outlook on 2024
In this first MERICS China Essentials of the new year, our experts analyze what 2024 might hold in store for China. MERICS Analyst Alexander Davey expects another year of anti-corruption measures, a perpetual feature since the start of Xi’s tenure in 2013.
More of the same is also likely in China’s difficult relationship with Taiwan, after voters there installed the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for a third successive term in government. MERICS Analyst Claus Soong says Beijing is likely to take “military and economic actions in new attempts to coerce Taiwan”, but will be careful not to cross any geopolitical red lines that would rouse the USA, not least because of a raft of domestic problems.
Nevertheless, MERICS Analyst Jacob Gunter predicts that Beijing will this year again refrain from stimulating economic growth and continue to place the geopolitical priorities of the party state above the economic needs of the country.
Adding to China’s economic woes will be the USA’s ongoing restrictions on tech exports. Beijing will have little alternative but to invest heavily in chips and other tech areas to replace foreign parts, expects MERICS Analyst Antonia Hmaidi. European companies should brace for the fall out.
