Bracing for geopolitical competition – insights from the MERICS China Forecast 2024

In 2024, we are entering a year marked by crucial elections in Taiwan, the European Union, and the United States. These elections will significantly influence the global geopolitical landscape and shape the European Union's perspectives and policies regarding China. The persistent tension between the United States and China will continue to mold China's foreign policy. However, deteriorating economic conditions will intensify domestic challenges within Chinese society. At the same time, ongoing conflicts in regions such as Ukraine and the Middle East will undoubtedly impact Europeans' views on China.

MERICS’ survey of 650 China experts and observers suggests that throughout 2024, China will focus on fortifying itself for geopolitical competition. This may play out most intensely in the economic sphere, where Beijing is expected to bolster the party-state’s ability to respond to pressure from the West’s de-risking policies and to steady its domestic economic base. EU-China relations seem to be gradually deteriorating, while 2024 holds significant uncertainties regarding the fallout from EU and US election.

To get all the results of the survey go to the MERICS website here