MERICS Foresight Workshop: 2024 China risks for Europe

In March 2023, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen introduced a new policy towards China centered on “de-risking” some aspects of the EU-China bilateral relationship. Effective implementation of this strategy, however, will require a more detailed understanding of the main risks that China’s policies and ambitions pose for Europe. To facilitate the early identification of some of the key risks that Europe will face next year, and to help pinpoint those that will have the biggest impact on European interests and security, MERICS organized a foresight workshop in Berlin.

This in-person foresight workshop brought together a group of about 15 European officials, business representatives and experts for a foresight exercise aiming to shed light on the main China risks that Europe will face in 2024. Held in a closed-door, off-the-record setting, the 2.5-hour interactive workshop applied foresight methodologies based on horizon scanning and risk mapping to identify and explore potential future challenges involving China, and sought to identify which of these require most urgent action by European stakeholders.